Poly crisis… pile crisis – What next?

For quite some time a number of international economists are warning against a concentration of crises, the poly crisis. In the past few years events and crises accumulate which hugely influence the national and international economies.   

Since 2020 the Corona virus is turning the world upside down. Although the actual situation is a bit more relaxed, the repercussions with respect to the supply bottlenecks have not been totally surmounted.

There is one crisis that stands alone: for a number of years Germany is confronted with an acute lack if skilled labour. A solution is not in sight and depends – among other things – on the demographic change. This can in the long run slow down the economic growth independent of other crises.

Since February 2022 the Russian war of aggression against the Ukraine did not only cause human suffering. Since Russia as one of the most important energy suppliers for Germany and parts of Europe has to be substituted as quickly as possible, bottlenecks and enormous price increases are inevitable. And one must not forget that the energy prices were already raised
sharply since the middle of 2021.

The Adblue crisis is a significant example of how crises can „pile up“: the fluid is used for the exhaust gas treatment of Diesel engines. Nearly 98 percent of trucks ran by the forwarding industry need Adblue. Due to the extremely high energy prices one of the biggest producers in Germany had to stop production a few weeks ago. A lack of Adblue could lead to a supply crisis in German supermarkets….

Ulrike Götz